When America Sneezes, the Car Market Catches a Cold
Economic uncertainty and political turmoil never bode well for the collector car market. As a rule, people don’t need the cars that I sell, they want them. But when buyers get spooked by what’s showing up in their news feeds, the notion of spending mad money on a fun car quickly recedes from their minds.
The last time I saw this happen was in 2008, and it was the mid-market cars that suffered the worst of it, as is happening now. Also similar to then, the upper tier collector cars ($200K and up) aren’t being affected that much - it seems that those who are sitting on mountains of cash still have plenty of money to play with. But for anyone that has $50K or $60K earmarked for a fun car, well, they’re probably going to hold on to that money right now, just in case.
I track sales results on Bring a Trailer every day, and I’m seeing some fairly dramatic swings already. As I’ve written here before on this Substack, values for pre-1960’s era cars have been fading for some time. But now? They’re almost being given away.
Here’s a 1940 Mercury convertible, an iconic year for Ford, Lincoln, and Mercury. What was once a reliable mainstay of any large collection, these wonderful convertibles are now pretty much ignored. This very car was first sold on BaT in January of 2024 for $30K, which back then was still a little under the money. Even at that good price, the winning bidder flaked out (rare on BaT, but it happens sometimes) so it was re-listed two weeks later, only to stall out with a final bid of $25K, reserve not met. The seller waited over a year to give it another shot, re-listing it once again while crossing his fingers and toes. This time it was bid up to $21K and the seller actually decided to cut it loose at that price. …Sold!… See a pattern?
Some will say “No duh, Pre-War American Iron is dead”. So yeah, let’s take a look at an iconic British sports car from the 50’s instead. A Jaguar XK150, no less. This was a local car that I had a chance to buy a few years ago, but the seller wanted north of $100K for it. At that time, it may have achieved a price like that if it was carefully consigned and presented at Monterey’s car week, or maybe at the Scottsdale auctions. But from a private seller on Craigslist? Not likely.
Still, I phoned the seller, having bought a few cars from him over the last two decades. After about a year of checking in now and again, he let me know that 85 would buy the car, but for me that was still high retail. Fast forward another year and now it pops up on BaT, this time being sold by another local guy I know, one who happens to be a respected Jaguar expert. Part of me had to wonder how much he had paid. 85? 80? 70? Doubtful that he could have bought it for any less than that.
This was a very original XK from the desirable 150 series - it stood tall with a matching numbers motor and a beautiful, honest patina. This car had a lot going for it, and the fact that the seller was well known among marque enthusiasts was a big plus. He had went through the car and fixed all the little things that I myself would have had to spend time and money on if I had been the one to buy it. I was rooting for him, hoping for a good result for his efforts, but the wind was not at his back. $59K, reserve not met.
Well, maybe the real money buyers of today only want perfect cars. Here’s one, a Mercedes 230SL that had just come off of a big buck restoration with no detail overlooked. Even better, it was being sold on BaT by Hyman Ltd, a midwestern dealer that’s known for having absolutely killer inventory. This car checked all the boxes, and there’s always a market for Mercedes Pagodas, right? Right?
Midway through the auction, when the car was sitting at 60K, I received a phone call from the seller who was having Hyman consign the car for him. He was agitated and upset. This was a guy that I had corresponded with many years ago, when Pagodas were a pretty constant part of my inventory, so much so that I made a buyer’s guide on YouTube about them. He had watched all six of my videos, downloaded a lot of my auction photos for reference, and then had put his heart and soul into the restoration of his. He was understandably bummed that the car was going nowhere. I let him know that the serious bids on BaT usually arrive at the very end, and to try and be patient. He had a great car; people would recognize that and step up to the plate, eventually.
Eventually came and went, and the car went unsold with a $130K high bid. It probably would have taken something near 200 to close the deal, and a few years ago that wouldn’t have raised any eyebrows.
What’s ruling the market these days are high performance and exotic cars from 1990’s onward - and the more expensive they were when new, the better. Here’s a 2000 Rolls Royce Seraph. RR made only 333 of them for this year, they came with a mighty V12 and a whopping price tag of $220K when new. This one looked resplendent in black, had 80K miles, a clean Carfax, and long term California ownership. Why drive a new Camry when you could arrive in old money style with this imposing Rolls? In fact, with the $35K you spent on that Camry you could have bought this Seraph and still had thousands left over for future maintenance. That’s right, this car sold for $22K. Twenty-two thousand, one tenth of its original price. Somewhere, Graham Hull is sulking.
If you’re a seller right now, my condolences, it’s tough out there. Set a realistic price and swallow hard. If you’re a buyer? Congratulations, your timing is perfect.
Damn... I am fortunate that my business and market (real estate/San Francisco Bay Area) tends to be *fairly* stable, short of the really bottom of the market and/or a 2008/Great Recession caliber event.
The story about the XK restoration and underwhelming auction results is terrifying.
When dealers/collectors don't get the results they want... I mean, obviously it varies case by case, but do they fire sale the car? Sit on it and hope for a rebounding market?
Can you make an argument that we are recession-bound, at least anecdotally, from your past experiences with the correlational and causal connections between the car market and larger markets?
Wow. Definitely tough times!